Urban growth in China: Past, prospect, and its impacts

Cao G-Y, Chen G, Pang L-H, Zheng X-Y, & Nilsson S (2012). Urban growth in China: Past, prospect, and its impacts. Population and Environment 33 (2): 137-160. DOI:10.1007/s11111-011-0140-6.

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Abstract

Rapid growth and globalization of the domestic economy have dramatically accelerated urbanization in China, resulting in significant environmental impacts and challenges for sustainable development. Using a multistate model accounting for distributional aspects of age, sex, education, and migration in rural and urban regions, we estimate the magnitude of urbanization in China through 2030 and examine some major associated sustainability issues. Results indicate that: (1) for a range of assumptions, China's urban population will nearly double from 2000 to 2030; (2) the labor force will constitute a larger share of total population in urban areas than rural due to internal migration of younger workers - this appears particularly true for the mega-urban metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai; (3) rural populations will experience more aging than urban; and (4) level of education among China's rural labor force will remain low, which could pressure China's industrial structural transition from an agricultural to a service-based economy.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Urbanization; Population dynamics; Sustainability; China; Multistate demographic models; Internal migration
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference: Population and Environment; 33(2-3):137-160 (March 2012) (Published online 12 June 2011)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:46
Last Modified: 24 Feb 2016 16:57
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10010

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