Robust energy portfolios under climate policy and socioeconomic uncertainty

Szolgayova J, Fuss S, Khabarov N, & Obersteiner M (2012). Robust energy portfolios under climate policy and socioeconomic uncertainty. Environmental Modeling & Assessment 17 (1): 39-49. DOI:10.1007/s10666-011-9274-2.

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Abstract

Concerning the stabilization of greenhouse gases, the UNFCCC prescribes measures to anticipate, prevent, or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate their adverse effects. Such measures should be cost-effective and scientific uncertainty should not be used as a reason for postponing them. However, in the light of uncertainty about climate sensitivity and other underlying parameters, it is difficult to assess the importance of different technologies in achieving robust long-term climate risk mitigation. One example currently debated in this context is biomass energy, which can be used to produce both carbon-neutral energy carriers, e.g., electricity, and at the same time offer a permanent CO2 sink by capturing carbon from the biomass at the conversion facility and permanently storing it. We use the GGI Scenario Database IIASA [3] as a point of departure for deriving optimal technology portfolios across different socioeconomic scenarios for a range of stabilization targets, focusing, in particular, on new, low emission scenarios. More precisely, the dynamics underlying technology adoption and operational decisions are analyzed in a real options model, the output of which then informs the portfolio optimization. In this way, we determine the importance of different energy technologies in meeting specific stabilization targets under different circumstances (i.e., under different socioeconomic scenarios), providing valuable insight to policymakers about the incentive mechanisms needed to achieve robust long-term climate risk mitigation.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Robust energy portfolios; Climate policy; Socioeconomic scenarios
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference: Environmental Modeling and Assessment; 17(1-2):39-49 (March 2012) (Published online 5 July 2011)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:46
Last Modified: 22 Aug 2016 14:36
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10034

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