The value of determining global land cover for assessing climate change mitigation options

Fritz S, Fuss S, Havlik P, Szolgayova J, McCallum I, Obersteiner M, & See L (2012). The value of determining global land cover for assessing climate change mitigation options. In: The Value of Information: Methodological Frontiers and New Applications in Environment and Health. Eds. Laxminarayan, R & Macauley, MK, Dordrecht: Springer. DOI:10.1007/978-94-007-4839-2_8.

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Abstract

Land cover maps provide critical input data for global models of land use. Urgent questions exist, such as how much land is available for the expansion of agriculture to combat food insecurity, how muchland is available for afforestation projects, and whether reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is more cost-effective than carbon capture and sequestration. Such questions can be answered only with reliable maps of land cover. However, global land cover datasets currently differ drastically in terms of the spatial extent of cropland distributions. One of the data layers that difer is cropland area. In this study, we evaluate how models designed to help in policy design can be used to quantify the differences in implementation costs. By examining these cost differences, we are able to quantify the benefits, which equal the loss from making a decision under imperfect information. Taking the specific example of choosing between REDD and carbon capture and storage under uncertainty about the available cropland area, we have developed a methodology on how the value derived from reducing uncertainty can be assessed. By implementing a portfolio optimization model to find the optimal mix of mitigation options under different sets of information, we are able to estimate the benefit of improved land cover data and thus determine the value of land cover validation efforts. We illustrate the methodology by comparing portfolio outputs of the different mitigation options modeled within the GLOBIOM economic land use model using cropland data from different databases.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: Value of information; Land cover maps; Land use; Mitigation; GEOSS
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference: In: R Laxminarayan, MK Macauley (eds); The Value of Information: Methodological Frontiers and New Applications in Environment and Health; Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands pp.193-230
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:47
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2016 16:47
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10058

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