Quantitative risk-cost-benefit analysis of selected mitigation options for two case studies

Narasimhan H, Faber MH, Remaitre A, Malet J-P, Eidsvig U, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Cascini L, & Ferlisi S (2012). Quantitative risk-cost-benefit analysis of selected mitigation options for two case studies. Deliverable 5.3, FP7 SafeLand Project - Living with Landslide Risk in Europe, WP 5.1 (February 2012)

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Abstract

Decision making in general is a difficult issue due to the significant underlying uncertainties and complex interrelation of events and choices affecting the benefits and losses associated with decisions. Typical decision problems are subject to a combination of inherent, modelling and statistical uncertainties. This is primarily due to the fact that our understanding of the issues involved in the decision problems is often far less than perfect and that it is only possible to model the involved processes of physical phenomena as well as human interactions in rather uncertain terms. If all aspects of a decision problem would be known with certainty, the identification of optimal decisions would be straightforward by means of traditional cost-benefit analysis. Due to the existing uncertainties, it is not possible to assess the results of decisions in certain terms. There is hence no way to assess with certainty the consequences resulting from the decisions we make. However, what can be assessed is the risk associated with the different decision alternatives. Based on risk assessments, decision alternatives may then be consistently ranked on the basis of their associated utilities and benefits/losses, thereby providing a rational basis for societal decision making.

This deliverable aims to provide a framework and methodology for carrying out a risk-cost-benefit analysis that could be utilised for decision making. Further two case studies . one involving the analysis and management of risks arising from debris flow phenomenon in Barcelonnette is described and another concerned with the risk analysis and risk management for risks posed by different flow-like phenomena in Nocera Inferiore are reported.

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV)
Risk & Resilience (RISK)
Bibliographic Reference: Deliverable 5.3, FP7 SafeLand Project - Living with Landslide Risk in Europe, WP 5.1 (February 2012)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:47
Last Modified: 04 Apr 2016 10:16
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10113

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