A cross-model comparison of global long-term technology diffusion under a 2 degrees C climate change control target. Special Issue on Implementing Climate Policies in the Major Economies: An Assessment of Durban Platform Architectures — Results from the LIMITS Project

van der Zwaan BCC, Roesler H, Kober T, Aboumahboub T, Calvin K, Gernaat DEHJ, Marangoni G, & McCollum DL (2013). A cross-model comparison of global long-term technology diffusion under a 2 degrees C climate change control target. Special Issue on Implementing Climate Policies in the Major Economies: An Assessment of Durban Platform Architectures — Results from the LIMITS Project. Climate Change Economics 4 (4): p. 1340013. DOI:10.1142/S2010007813400137.

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Abstract

We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2 degrees C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2 degrees C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030.2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate policies; Low-carbon energy growth; Technological innovation; Mitigation costs
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Climate Change Economics; 4(4):1340013 (November 2013) (Published online 4 June 2014)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:48
Last Modified: 19 Feb 2016 15:25
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10278

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