Is there a 1970s syndrome? Analyzing structural breaks in the metabolism of industrial economies

Wiedenhofer D, Rovenskaya E, Haas W, Krausmann F, Pallua I, & Fischer-Kowalski M (2013). Is there a 1970s syndrome? Analyzing structural breaks in the metabolism of industrial economies. Energy Procedia: 182-191. DOI:10.1016/j.egypro.2013.08.022.

[img]
Preview
Text
1-s2.0-S1876610213016160-main.pdf - Published Version

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

In this paper we focus on long-term socio-ecological transitions from the agrarian to the industrial metabolic regime. Statistical analysis is used to identify structural breaks in the development of energy use in the second half of the 20th century. A stabilization of per capita energy and resource use in most high-income countries was reached in the early 1970s, after a period of accelerated growth of resource use since the end of World War II. Most empirical turns in trend coincide with the oil price crises of 1973 and 1979. This stabilization could offer lessons for a future sustainability transition.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Long-term socio-ecological research; Socio-metabolic transition; Material flows analysis; Autoregressive moving average statistical testing; Chow tests
Research Programs: Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
Bibliographic Reference: Energy Procedia; 40:182-191 (Published online 6 September 2013)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:48
Last Modified: 23 Feb 2016 10:25
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10286

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313