A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

Gambhir A, Schulz NB, Napp T, Tong D, Munuera L, Faist M, & Riahi K (2013). A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050. Energy Policy 59: 614-632. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.022.

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Abstract

This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a "hypothetical counterfactual baseline" (HCB) scenario and low carbon ("abatement") scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: China; CO2 emissions; Low-carbon technology
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
Bibliographic Reference: Energy Policy; 59:614-632 (August 2013) (Published online 16 May 2013)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:48
Last Modified: 24 Aug 2016 11:34
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10416

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