Climate variability and trends in Bolivia

Seiler C, Hutjes RWA, & Kabat P (2013). Climate variability and trends in Bolivia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 52 (1): 130-146. DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0105.1.

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Abstract

Climate-related disasters in Bolivia are frequent, severe, and manifold and affect large parts of the population, economy, and ecosystems. Potentially amplified through climate change, natural hazards are of growing concern. To better understand these events, homogenized daily observations of temperature (29 stations) and precipitation (68 stations) from 1960 to 2009 were analyzed in this study. The impact of the positive (+) and negative (-) phases of the three climate modes (i) Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), (ii) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events, and (iii) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) were assessed. Temperatures were found to be higher during PDO(+), EN, and AAO(+) in the Andes. Total amounts of rainfall, as well as the number of extreme events, were higher during PDO(+), EN, and LN in the lowlands. During austral summer [December-February (DJF)], EN led to drier conditions in the Andes with more variable precipitation. Temperatures increased at a rate of 0.1 degrees C per decade, with stronger increases in the Andes and in the dry season. Rainfall totals increased from 1965 to 1984 [12% in DJF and 18% in June-August (JJA)] and decreased afterward (-4% in DJF and -10% in JJA), following roughly the pattern of PDO. Trends of climate extremes generally corresponded to trends of climate means. Findings suggest that Bolivia's climate will be warmer and drier than average in the near-term future. Having entered PDO(.) in 2007, droughts and LN-related floods can be expected in the lowlands, while increasing temperatures suggest higher risks of drought in the Andes.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: South America; ENSO; Climate variability; Time series; Pacific decadal oscillation; Trends
Research Programs: Directorate (DIR)
Bibliographic Reference: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology; 52(1):130-146
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:48
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2016 13:20
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10471

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