Characterising performance of environmental models

Bennett ND, Croke BFW, Guariso G, Guillaume JHA, Hamilton SH, Jakeman AJ, Marsili-Libelli S, Newham LTH, et al. (2013). Characterising performance of environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.011.

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Abstract

In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus on numerical, graphical and qualitative methods. General classes of direct value comparison, coupling real and modelled values, preserving data patterns, indirect metrics based on parameter values, and data transformations are discussed. In practice environmental modelling requires the use and implementation of workflows that combine several methods, tailored to the model purpose ad dependent upon the data and information available. A five-step procedure for performance evaluation of models is suggested, with the key elements including: (i) (re)assessment of the model's aim, scale and scope; (ii) characterisation of the data for calibration and testing; (iii) visual and other analysis to detect under- or non-modelled behaviour and to gain an overview of overall performance; (iv) selection of basic performance criteria; and (v) consideration of more advanced methods to handle problems such as systematic divergence between modelled and observed value

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Model development; Model evaluation; Model testing; Performance indicators; Sensitivity analysis
Research Programs: Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
Bibliographic Reference: Environmental Modelling & Software; 40:1-20 (February 2013) (Published online 6 November 2012)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:49
Last Modified: 23 Feb 2016 10:57
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10544

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