Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Mueller C, Arneth A, Boote KJ, Folberth C, et al. (2014). Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9): 3268-3273. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1222463110.

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Abstract

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Food security; AgMIP; ISI-MIP; Climate impacts; Agriculture
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference: PNAS; 111(9):3268-3273 (4 March 2014) (Published online 16 December 2013)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:50
Last Modified: 23 Aug 2016 09:26
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10979

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