A new scenario framework for climate change research: Scenario matrix architecture

van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E, O'Neill BC, Ebi KL, Riahi K, Carter TR, Edmonds J, Hallegatte S, et al. (2014). A new scenario framework for climate change research: Scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change 122 (3): 373-386. DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1.

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Abstract

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
Bibliographic Reference: Climatic Change; 122(3):373-386 (February 2014) (Published online 3 October 2013)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:51
Last Modified: 18 Feb 2016 15:55
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11013

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