Earthquake risk modeling for the evaluation of losses to property owners in the metropolitan area of Shiraz

Sadeghi M, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Pakdel-Lahiji N, & Ghafori-Ashtiany M (2014). Earthquake risk modeling for the evaluation of losses to property owners in the metropolitan area of Shiraz. In: Proceedings, 10th U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering: Frontiers of Earthquake Engineering, 21-25 July 2014.

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Abstract

Natural disasters can cause huge human and economic losses, and subsequent operation efforts in disaster relief, recovery and construction by the government, the private sector stakeholders as well as international donors can significantly drain their resources from other non-disaster related pre-planned investments. As a consequence, there is now a paradigm shift for dealing with extremes from after the event approaches to more pro-active ones, the later one including risk reduction and risk financing options. However, reliable and quantitative up-to-date estimation of the underlying risks is of outmost importance towards developing effective risk management strategies as well as risk reduction activities. This is even more so the case for countries that are highly exposed to natural hazards, such as earthquake risk in Iran. This paper focuses on earthquake risk for Shiraz, the 4th largest city in Iran located in a high seismic active hazard zone with high socio-economic and historical importance for the country. It is for the first time that such an assessment for the region is performed and therefore the results should shed some light on potential risks with a probability based setting which could guide current earthquake related policy processes in the region. A catastrophe modeling approach is adopted to assess risk and a detailed analysis of potential economic losses as well as vulnerability assessments for assets within district 1 is performed. Via combining the hazard, exposure and vulnerability an Exceedance Probability (EP) curve for assets as well as human losses are constructed. The EP curve represents a powerful tool for the assessment of feasible risk reduction strategies as well as cost-benefit analysis for these strategies. An approach is suggested how this could be achieved within an integrative framework.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Research Programs: Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV)
Risk & Resilience (RISK)
Bibliographic Reference: In:; Proceedings, 10th U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering: Frontiers of Earthquake Engineering; 21-25 July 2014, Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:52
Last Modified: 04 Apr 2016 10:15
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11239

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