Robust response to hydro-climatic change in electricity generation planning

Parkinson SC & Djilali N (2015). Robust response to hydro-climatic change in electricity generation planning. Climatic Change 130 (4): 475-489. DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1359-5.

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Abstract

An electricity generation planning framework incorporating adaptation to hydroclimatic change is presented. The planning framework internalizes risks and opportunities associated with alternative hydro-climate scenarios to identify a long-term systems configuration robust to uncertainty. The implications of a robust response to hydro-climatic change are demonstrated for the electricity system in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Adaptation strategy is crucial in this region, mainly due to the large contribution of hydropower resources to regional electricity supply. Analysis of results from basin-scale hydrologic models driven with downscaled global climate data suggest that shifts in regional streamflow characteristics by the year 2050 are likely to increase BC's annual hydropower potential by more than 10 %. These effects combined with an estimated decrease in electricity demand by 2 % due to warmer temperatures, could provide an additional 11 TWh of annual energy. Uncertainties in these projected climate impacts indicate technology configurations offering significant long-term operational flexibility will be needed to ensure system reliability. Results from the regional long-term electricity generation model incorporating adaptive capacity show the significant shifts required in the non-hydro capacity mix to ensure system robustness cause an increase in cumulative operating costs of between 1 and 7 %. Analysis of technology configurations involving high-penetrations of wind generation highlights interactions between flexibility requirements occurring over multiple temporal scales.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Climatic Change; 130(4):475-489 (June 2015) (Published online 6 March 2015)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:53
Last Modified: 18 Feb 2016 15:49
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11460

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