Agriculture under climate change in China: mitigate the risks by grasping the emerging opportunities

Tian Z, Liang Z, Sun L, Zhong H, Qiu H, Fischer G, & Zhao S (2015). Agriculture under climate change in China: mitigate the risks by grasping the emerging opportunities. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 21 (5): 1259-1276. DOI:10.1080/10807039.2014.955392.

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Abstract

There have been increasing concerns on risks and uncertainty posed by climate change to China's future crop production. The existing assessments using popular process-based and site-specific crop growing models highlight the significant extent of climate-induced yield reduction, and thus suggest a scary downward risk for China's future food production. Surprisingly, much less attention has been paid to exploring the potential gains that may also be brought by climate change. To address this imbalance, we develop an integrated agro-climatic and ecological assessment tool that is capable of detecting the shifts of multicropping opportunities under different climate change scenarios. The application of this tool to the context of China reveals significant extension of multicropping opportunities brought in by climate change. We argue for an active adaptation to such emerging opportunities through both market and policy incentives, because the aggregate gain of such an adaptation is sufficient to outweigh the loss as revealed by the existing assessments.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: agriculture; China; climate change; food security; multicropping
Research Programs: Water (WAT)
Bibliographic Reference: Human and Ecological Risk Assessment; 21(5):1259-1276 (July 2015)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:53
Last Modified: 14 Sep 2016 13:33
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11505

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