Regional low-emission pathways from global models

van Soest H, Reis LA, van Vuuren D, Bertram C, Drouet L, Jewell J, Kriegler E, Luderer G, et al. (2015). Regional low-emission pathways from global models. Nota di Lavoro 110.2015, Italy [December 2015] DOI:10.13140/RG.2.1.2008.3284.

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Abstract

Governements worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2-degrees with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2-degrees target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regioanl cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenarios. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emisssions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in coutries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mtitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Nota di Lavoro 110.2015, Italy [December 2015], prepared by PBL and FEEM/CMCC for the MILES project Consortium under contacts to DG CLIMA (No. 21.0104/2014/684427/SER/CLIMA.A.4)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:53
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2016 12:37
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11613

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