Strategies for assessing impacts of climatic change in marginal areas

Carter T & Parry M (1984). Strategies for assessing impacts of climatic change in marginal areas. In: Climatic Changes on a Yearly to Millennial Basis. Eds. Mörner, N.-A. & Karlén, W., pp. 401-412 Netherlands: Springer. ISBN 978-94-015-7692-5 DOI:10.1007/978-94-015-7692-5_44.

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Abstract

Greater rigour is required in designing research strategies to assess possible impacts of climatic change on society. We can identify relatively disadvantaged or marginal areas which may be particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations. This vulnerability to climate is best described as a level of risk of significant impact, e.g. crop failure. Changes in climate are accompanied, therefore, by changes in the level of risk. These changes may be very rapid in marginal areas and are characterised by a very steep, quasi-exponential “risk-surface”. With suitable models linking climate to crop growth potential, boundaries of agroclimatic risk can be mapped geographically. Temporal shifts of these boundaries identify areas of potential impact. The approach is illustrated in examples from North America and Northern Europe.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: Environment Program (ENV)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2016 13:42
Last Modified: 26 Feb 2016 13:42
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/12080

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