Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight

Ilmola L & Rovenskaya E (2016). Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 106: 85-100. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.015.

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Abstract

Emerging uncertainties present a challenge to decision making. On the basis of a review of existing scenario methods, we examine how ontological uncertainty, that is, the situation in which we do not know what we do not know, is included in scenario processes. We present three experimental foresight methods applicable for cases dominated by uncertainty; structural scenarios, shock scenarios and action portfolio and Agent-Based Modeling. The main finding of our experiment is that in order to address uncertainty, we have to relax the plausibility requirements and focus the analysis on futures that are perceived to be non-probable. In this way we are able to challenge existing perceptions and multiply the number of mental models of the futures.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Methodology; Uncertainty; Scenario planning; Decision making
Research Programs: Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 21 Mar 2016 07:52
Last Modified: 27 Mar 2017 11:59
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/12306

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