Competition and Complementarity in Diffusion: The Case of Octane

Ayres, R. & Ezekoye, I. (1991). Competition and Complementarity in Diffusion: The Case of Octane. In: Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior. Eds. Nakicenovic, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604 & ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7814-4990Grubler, A., pp. 433-450 Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany: Springer. ISBN 978-3-662-02702-8 10.1007/978-3-662-02700-4_17.

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Abstract

The standard ontogenic (life-cycle) model of technological evolution can be characterized briefly as follows (Ayres, 1987): (1) a radical invention (birth) creates a new technology; (2) it is commercialized on the basis of performance and rapidly developed by a series of improvements and modifications (infancy); (3) it is successful enough in the marketplace to attract many variants and imitators who hope to exploit a growing market (adolescence); (4) the pace of technological change finally slows down enough to permit standardization and exploitation of economies of scale, and competition on the basis of price rather than performance (maturity); and finally a new and better technology supplants it (senescence).

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