Environmental prospects for the next century: Implications for long-term policy and research strategies

Munn RE (1988). Environmental prospects for the next century: Implications for long-term policy and research strategies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 33 (3): 203-218. DOI:10.1016/0040-1625(88)90014-5.

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

This report examines environmental prospects for the twenty-first century, and then suggests some appropriate long-term management strategies and research priorities. A few current global trends (e.g., increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, population, agricultural production) are practically irreversible over the next couple of decades due to inertias in the systems involved. However, there are bound to be nonlinearities, discontinuities, and surprises in the behavior of many environmental and socioeconomic systems. In fact, the main challenge for managers, policy analysts, and politicians is to develop strategies that are robust in response to these surprises, exploiting the opportunities as well as softening the shocks that may arise.

The main characteristics of such strategies are that they be adaptive, interdisciplinary, and cross-sectoral. As pointed out by Harvey Brooks [2], we must avoid partial solutions that may be optimal for a particular sector or decade, but which are far from optimal for the biosphere as a whole over the long term.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Environment Program (ENV)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2016 09:26
Last Modified: 19 Apr 2016 11:15
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/12579

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313