The Relationship between Technological Development Paths and the Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in Global Emissions Scenarios

Morita T, Nakicenovic N, & Robinson J (2000). The Relationship between Technological Development Paths and the Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in Global Emissions Scenarios. Center for Global Environmental Research. Report CGER–I044–2000

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Abstract

This paper compares technological development paths that determine future mitigation scenarios aimed at stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Future social and economic development paths have already been compared in relation to their impact on climate mitigation by Morita, Nakicenovic and Robinson (2000). This paper is an expansion of that earlier comparison. Forty stabilization scenarios are reviewed, and all use as their baseline the new scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Nakicenovic et al, 2000).
Several common tendencies and characteristics can be observed across the scenarios. First, the different technological development paths described in the baseline IPCC scenarios require that: CO2 emissions be reduced by different levels; different schedules for the reductions be adopted; and, different technology/policy measures be chosen to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations - even to achieve the same stabilization level. Second, no one single measure is sufficient for the development, adoption and diffusion of mitigation options to achieve stabilization within the accepted time-frame. Third, the level of technology/policy measures needed to achieve stabilization toward the end of the 21st century or beginning of the 22nd century will be greatly affected by the choice of technological development paths over next decades. The paper also identifies some characteristics in technological measures across the different technological development paths to achieve the stabilization targets.

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2016 12:04
Last Modified: 15 Apr 2016 06:41
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/12618

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