Towards the fifth Kondratiev upswing: elements of an emerging new growth phase and possible development trajectories

Grubler A & Nowotny H (1990). Towards the fifth Kondratiev upswing: elements of an emerging new growth phase and possible development trajectories. International Journal of Technology Management 5 (4): 431-471. DOI:10.1504/IJTM.1990.025914.

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Abstract

This paper takes a long–term view on economic growth from an essentially Schumpeteriam perspective. The authors consider that since the early 1970s we have been witnessing a volatile and turbulent transition towards a new phase of socio–economic development, in which the diffusion of a host of interrelated new technologies, institutions and forms of organization could lead to a renewed period of economic growth and prosperity. They argue that the beginning of such a diffusion phase, in which the ultimate characteristics of the future development trajectory are being shaped, could constitute an opportunity window for reducing the disparities between countries as a result of their different degrees of economic development. They consider in addition that the successful catching–up will depend more on an effective introduction and diffusion of the elements of the emerging new development regime than on a growth model along the trajectories and intensity level of the previous model of development.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: economic growth, global development, Kondratiev upswing, Schumpeterian growth model, structural adjustments, technology diffusion, energy, transport, communications, developing countries, technology transfer
Research Programs: Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 27 Apr 2016 11:52
Last Modified: 25 Jan 2017 15:08
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/12925

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