Technological substitution and long waves in the USA

Nakicenovic N (1987). Technological substitution and long waves in the USA. In: The Long-Wave Debate. pp. 76-103 Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany: Springer-Verlag. ISBN 978-3-662-10351-7 DOI:10.1007/978-3-662-10351-7_8.

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Abstract

The analysis of historical. replacement of old by new technologies has shown that most of these processes can be described by simple rules that are captured in the logistic substitution model (see Marchetti, 1979; Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1979; Nakicenovic, 1984), and that technological substitution, expressed in terms of market shares, follows characteristic S-shaped curves. In order to illustrate and describe the properties of the approach we first give examples of how new energy forms replaced their predecessors, since technological changes in the energy system constitute one of the first and most complete applications of logistic substitution analysis. To further explore this method we then describe similar substitution processes in steel production and the merchant marines.

Item Type: Book Section
Additional Information: Selected Papers from an IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) International Meeting on Long-Term Fluctuations in Economic Growth: Their Causes and Consequences, Held in Weimar, GDR, June 10–14, 1985
Research Programs: Energy Program (ENP)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 24 May 2016 12:10
Last Modified: 24 May 2016 12:10
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13249

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