Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison

Smith SJ, Rao S, Riahi K, van Vuuren DP, Calvin KV, & Kyle P (2016). Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison. Climatic Change: 1-12. DOI:10.1007/s10584-016-1733-y.

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Project: Pan-European Gas-AeroSol-climate interaction Study (PEGASOS, FP7 265148)

Abstract

This paper compares projections over the twenty-first century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed focusing on the sectoral level. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the twenty-first century due to a combination of emission controls and technology shifts over time. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model: the response has many similarities between models for the energy transformation and transportation sectors, with more diversity in the response for the building and industrial sectors. Much of these differences can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Aerosols; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Global warming; Industrial emissions; Sulfur dioxide
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 18 Aug 2016 09:02
Last Modified: 27 Jan 2017 11:18
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13738

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