Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

Pugh TAM, Müller C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Folberth C, Olin S, Schmid E, & Arneth A (2016). Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. Nature Communications 7: e12608. DOI:10.1038/ncomms12608.

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Project: Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation (LUC4C, FP7 603542)

Abstract

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate-change ecology; Climate-change impacts; Ecosystem services; Environmental impact
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 20 Sep 2016 11:05
Last Modified: 27 Jan 2017 09:25
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13816

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