Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers

van Dijk M, Gramberger M, Laborde D, Mandryk M, Shutes L, Stehfest E, Valin H, & Zellmer K (2016). Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers. In: International Association of Agricultural Economists 2015 Conference, 9-14 August 2015, Milan, Italy.

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Abstract

To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess complex and uncertain problems, such as food security. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios up to the year 2050 that are specifically designed for food security modelling. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios a highly participatory process is used, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. A novel approach is introduced to quantify a selection of key drivers that directly can be used as input in global integrated assessment models to assess the impact of aid, trade, agricultural and science policies on global food and nutrition security.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 28 Nov 2016 14:44
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2016 07:54
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/14002

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