Forecasting societies’ adaptive capacities through demographic metabolism model

Lutz W & Muttarak R (2017). Forecasting societies’ adaptive capacities through demographic metabolism model. Nature Climate Change 7 (3): 177-184. DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE3222.

[img]
Preview
Text
NCLIM-15071137_copy edited version.pdf - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (549kB) | Preview
Project: Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195)

Abstract

In seeking to understand how future societies will be affected by climate change we cannot simply assume they will be identical to those of today, because climate and societies are both dynamic. Here we propose that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections provide an effective analytical toolbox to forecast important aspects of societal change that affect adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition of future populations can influence societies' adaptive capacity. Multi-dimensional population projections form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, and knowledge and analytical tools from demography have great value in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 01 Mar 2017 08:36
Last Modified: 01 Sep 2017 03:00
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/14395

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313