Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis

Shchekinova E, Puchkova A, Rovenskaya E, & Dieckmann U (2017). Anticipating Recessions using Inclination Analysis. In: IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017, 27 February-1 March 2017, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

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Abstract

Recessions are economic downturns that can be recognized from macro-indicators such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate (FRIR). To provide early-warning signals of recessions and similar systemic transitions, here we propose a new approach based on pattern recognition, called inclination analysis [1, 2]. For this purpose, we develop a stochastic model based on time-series analysis to assess the probability of a recession to occur at a given moment in the past, present, or future. Calibrating our model to data proceeds in three steps, involving the coarse-graining of the available input time series, the identification of short series motifs that foreshadow recessions, and the optimization of key model parameters according to the model’s desired forecasting horizon.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Research Programs: Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
Evolution and Ecology (EEP)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 06 Mar 2017 09:18
Last Modified: 31 May 2017 08:32
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/14425

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