Dynamic Merge of the Global and Local Models for Sustainable Land Use Planning with Regard for Global Projections from GLOBIOM and Local Technical–Economic Feasibility and Resource Constraints

Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Havlik P, Mosnier A, Leclere D, Fritz S, Valin H, Obersteiner M, et al. (2017). Dynamic Merge of the Global and Local Models for Sustainable Land Use Planning with Regard for Global Projections from GLOBIOM and Local Technical–Economic Feasibility and Resource Constraints. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis 53 (2): 176-185. DOI:10.1007/s10559-017-9917-7.

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Project: Economics of climate change adaptation in Europe (ECONADAPT, FP7 603906), Assessment of the impact of drivers of change on Europe's food and nutrition security (TRANSMANGO, FP7 613532), Stimulating Innovation for Global Monitoring of Agriculture and its Impact on the Environment in support of GEOGLAM (SIGMA, FP7 603719), Exploring the potential for agricultural and biomass trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States (AGRICISTRADE, FP7 612755)

Abstract

In order to conduct research at required spatial resolution, we propose a model fusion involving interlinked calculations of regional projections by the global dynamic model GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and robust dynamic downscaling model, based on cross-entropy principle, for deriving spatially resolved projections. The proposed procedure allows incorporating data from satellite images, statistics, expert opinions, as well as data from global land use models. In numerous case studies in China and Ukraine, the approach allowed to estimate local land use and land use change projections corresponding to real trends and expectations. The disaggregated data and projections were used in national models for planning sustainable land use and agricultural development.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: global land use model; robust downscaling model; dynamic model fusion; uncertainties; local land use projections
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 06 Apr 2017 07:56
Last Modified: 06 Apr 2017 13:08
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/14523

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