Estimating the Future Input of Fossil Fuel CO2 into the Atmosphere by Simulation Gaming

Stahl I & Ausubel JH (1981). Estimating the Future Input of Fossil Fuel CO2 into the Atmosphere by Simulation Gaming. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-81-107

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Abstract

Previous estimates of input of fossil fuel CO2 into the atmosphere are reviewed, including those of NAS, IIASA, IEA, and Marchetti. Methods employed largely disregard that if CO2-induced changes are indeed harmful then there may be efforts to prevent emissions. There is a need to include explicitly societal response to increasing CO2 emissions in estimating future input as well as the strategic interaction among national energy policies. Economic theory of the general equilibrium type, game theory, and computer simulation (without humans) have disadvantages in this regard. Gaming, involving humans playing the roles of various nations, may be an illuminating approach to the problem. A simple game, focusing on coal, trade, and many nations is proposed as an initial effort.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
Research Programs: Resources and Environment Area (REN)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:49
Last Modified: 27 Oct 2016 05:14
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/1654

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