The Accuracy of Population Projections

Stoto MA (1983). The Accuracy of Population Projections. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-84-017. Reprinted from Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78 [1983].

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Abstract

Although population studies are key elements of many planning and policy studies, they are inherently inaccurate. This report attempts to measure the inaccuracy through a comparison of past projections with the actual population figures. The aim of this historcal study is not to criticize or applaud the quality of previous demographic predictions, but rather to provide confidence intervals for projections made today. This should allow planners to use projections more objectively by providing a range of reasonable possibilities rather than a single estimate.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint))
Research Programs: System and Decision Sciences - Core (SDS)
Bibliographic Reference: Reprinted from Journal of the American Statistical Association; 78 [1983]
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:52
Last Modified: 19 Jul 2016 07:18
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/2161

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