On Spatial Modelling of Long-Term Forest Fire Dynamics

Antonovsky MY & Ter-Mikhaelian MT (1987). On Spatial Modelling of Long-Term Forest Fire Dynamics. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-87-105

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Abstract

The dynamics of forest fires over large territories is of great practical interest. Previous theoretical works are concerned mainly with point source fire models, and the transition from point source to area models -- large scale -- even simple models, is a shift forward. Certainly, the term "simple" has relative meaning in that it is relative to the level of achievement in an applied domain. However, it is very interesting that, to the authors, even such a simplified model appears not very trivial.

As regards the stable state of the forest and the dependence of fire probability on the age of the forest, this conclusion can only be checked with models, as the time required for natural observations is much too long. In the model described in this paper, we do not claim to have created a quantitative model with which we could give a prognosis of the dynamics of specific forest regions. However, we can say that we have reached the following conclusions:

1. The absence of contemporary boreal forest of stable (in the absence of constant in time age-structure of forest) state, instead of that -- the stable fire regime, which is characterized by the large amount of fire year with little fired territory during the year, and irregular fires of great intensity. An explanation in the frame of a model -- effects like "synchronization" of forest formed processing (it must be an accumulation of a large amount of combustible material over a large area). In our model this regime has settled after 2000 years (steps) and long-term support (>10000).

2. The probability of burning a forest increases monotonically with increase in forest age.

For a more accurate quantitative description of fire dynamics in forests, we must of course take into account the different primary and secondary succession lines, their ecological characteristics, climate fluctuations and so on.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
Research Programs: Environmental Monitoring Activity (MON)
Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:57
Last Modified: 18 Nov 2016 17:49
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/2947

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