Dynamics in Land Use Patterns: Socio-Economic and Environmental Aspects of the Second Agricultural Land Use Revolution

Nijkamp P & Soeteman F (1988). Dynamics in Land Use Patterns: Socio-Economic and Environmental Aspects of the Second Agricultural Land Use Revolution. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-88-002

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Abstract

Many attempts have been made in the past decade to model or to replicate the complexity of dynamic economic-environmental systems, but the strategic components (e.g., key forces, surprises and boundaries) were not adequately included, so that these models failed to provide effective and preventive environmental policies. Consequently, mega-trend analysis at a meso level focusing on the qualitative changes and major directions of influence is -- from a strategic policy viewpoint -- more important than seemingly precise model predictions which are usually bound to fail. This implies that joint expert views (e.g. based on strategic scientific forum analysis) and long-term cross-national comparative studies may often provide more appropriate information than conventional analytical tools. These ideas will be further elaborated in this paper in the framework of land use problems.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Collaborative Paper)
Research Programs: Environment Program - Core (ENC)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:59
Last Modified: 16 Aug 2016 04:44
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/3207

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