Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions

Sanderson WC (1995). Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions. Mathematical Population Studies 5 (3): 259-279. DOI:10.1080/08898489509525405.

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Abstract

More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Population forecasting; Population confidence intervals; Population prediction intervals; Model complexity; Demographic economic and environmental interactions
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: Mathematical Population Studies; 5(3):259-279 (1995)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:05
Last Modified: 26 Feb 2016 10:16
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/4256

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