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An attempt is made to structure the heuristic process of extrapolating trending geologic bodies in the analytic framework of Bayesian inference. The approach models spatial properties of trending bodies rather than geological processes, and includes components of uncertainty arising out of trend model selection. Inclusion of several components of uncertainty leads to rapid dispersion of the probability density of predicted location away from the region of observations, in conformity with the intuitive notion of valid distances of prediction. The philosophical foundations of exploration and the role of probabilistic predictions in decisionmaking are briefly discussed.
|Item Type:||Monograph (IIASA Research Memorandum)|
|Research Programs:||Human Settlements and Services Area (HSS)|
|Depositing User:||IIASA Import|
|Date Deposited:||15 Jan 2016 01:42|
|Last Modified:||24 Jul 2016 16:56|
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