A Simplified Model to Predict Long-Term Ozone Concentrations in Europe

Heyes, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5254-493X, Schoepp, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5990-423X, Amann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1963-0972, & Unger, S. (1996). A Simplified Model to Predict Long-Term Ozone Concentrations in Europe. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-96-012

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Abstract

In the preparation process for the Second Sulphur Protocol of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, integrated assessment models played an important role in identifying cost-effective strategies for reducing SO2 emissions in Europe. Applying this effect-based approach to other environmental problems (e.g., photo-oxidants) seems appealing. In view of the timetable adopted for the current preparation of an updated Protocol on emissions of nitrogen oxides, an integrated assessment tool for ozone is required in the very near future.

The paper presents an outline of an integrated assessment model for tropospheric ozone in Europe, with modules on emissions, emission control technologies and costs, ozone formation and environmental impacts. In its central part the paper focuses on the core element of such an approach, i.e., a concise description of the relationships between the precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds) and regional ozone levels, which must be computationally efficient for use in an integrated assessment model.

Critical levels, i.e., threshold levels protecting vegetation from damage, have been recently established using long-term exposure measures. Consequently, to be suitable for integrated assessment models, source-receptor relationships should be able to describe the long-term changes of ozone, e.g., over a six-month period. Based on numerous scenario runs of the EMEP ozone model, polynomial source-receptor relationships have been statistically identified. Using national annual emissions of NO, and VOC, the model predicts regional responses of the six-month mean of early afternoon ozone concentrations. From this concentration measure, excess exposure as used in the definition of the critical levels can be derived. The paper introduces the methodology of the approach, evaluates the results and discusses areas of further work.

The suggested model formulation can be incorporated into the framework of an integrated assessment model, enabling (i) the assessment of costs and environmental benefits from alternative strategies to reduce precursor emissions and (ii) the identification of cost-optimized strategies to achieve environmental targets.

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