Risk-based Selection of Forest Regeneration Methods

Zhou, W. (1997). Risk-based Selection of Forest Regeneration Methods. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-97-069

[thumbnail of IR-97-069.pdf]
Preview
Text
IR-97-069.pdf

Download (112kB) | Preview

Abstract

A stochastic optimization model is developed to make a selection between the planting method and the seed-tree method, taking into account the uncertainty of, and the legal requirement on, the stocking level of the established seedlings in a given year after regeneration action. Uncertainty is quantified as the variation of the mortality rate of planted seedlings for the planting method, and as the prediction error for the seed-tree method. The objective of the forest landowner is assumed to maximize the expected net present value (NPV). Numerical simulations show that the owner should prefer the seed-tree method to the planting method for Scots pine stand. However, if the risk-free selection model is used, it overestimates the expected NPV by about 2%. Sensitivity analysis shows that a less restrictive forest act could improve the expected net present value both for the planting method and the seed-tree method. Sensitivity analysis also shows that decreasing the level of variation of the mortality rate (or prediction error) increases the expected NPV.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
Research Programs: Risk, Modeling, Policy (RMP)
Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:08
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:16
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5226

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item