Modeling Indeterminacy in Decision Situations

Ekenberg L & Thorbioernson J (1997). Modeling Indeterminacy in Decision Situations. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-97-044

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Abstract

We present theoretical foundations and computational procedures of a theory for analyzing decisions under risk, when the available information is vague and imprecise. The impreciseness is expressed by a set of global distributions T over a set of space S, where the latter represents the classes of all probability and utility measures over a set of discrete outcomes. We show how local distributions, i.e. distributions over projections of S on various subspaces of S, can be derived from T and introduce consistency measures expressing the extent into which user-asserted local distributions can be used for defining T. The evaluation model used is based on the expected utility, but this is not a necessary restriction. The approach allows a decision maker to be as deliberately imprecise as she feels natural, as well as provide her with the means for expressing varying degrees of imprecision in the input sentences.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
Research Programs: Risk, Modeling, Policy (RMP)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:09
Last Modified: 21 Oct 2016 14:51
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5250

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