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Model schedules have two important applications: 1) they may be used to infer empirical schedules of populations for which the requisite data are lacking, and 2) they can be applied in analytical studies of human population dynamics.
The development of model fertility and mortality schedules and their use in studies of the evolution of human populations have received considerable attention. The construction of model migration schedules and their application in studies of the spatial evolution of human populations have not. This paper addresses the latter question and demonstrates how techniques that have been successfully applied to treat the former problem can be readily extended to deal with the latter.
Migration rates vary substantially with age. They are relatively high for the young but decline sharply with age. The basic age profiles of migration schedules may be summarized by means of regression equations that relate age-specific migration rates to indices of migration levels. These equations, together with comparable ones for mortality schedules, may be used to construct "model" multiregional life tables that describe the mortality-migration patterns of a multiregional population. Such tables, in turn, may be combined with model fertility schedules to create hypothetical "model" multiregional stable populations.
Model multiregional stable populations reveal the long-run consequences of particular changes in levels of fertility, mortality, and migration. They show, for example, that the stable shares of regional populations exposed to identical schedules of fertility and mortality will vary inversely with the ratio of their migration levels. They demonstrate that higher rates of growth lead to stable populations that taper more rapidly with age. And they reveal that regional age compositions and birth rates are relatively insensitive to changes in migration levels.
Model migration schedules and model multiregional stable populations illuminate important aspects of spatial population dynamics. To the extent that a workable understanding of spatial population dynamics is an important ingredient of informed human settlement policymaking, they constitute a useful and necessary component of the spatial planner's analytical apparatus.
|Item Type:||Monograph (IIASA Research Report)|
|Research Programs:||Human Settlements and Services Area (HSS)|
|Depositing User:||IIASA Import|
|Date Deposited:||15 Jan 2016 01:43|
|Last Modified:||03 Nov 2016 17:02|
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