Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations

Wils AB, Kamiya M, & Choucri N (1998). Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations. System Dynamics Review 14 (2): 129-162. DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199822/23)14:2/3<129::AID-SDR146>3.0.CO; 2-6.

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Official URL: http://129::AID-SDR146

Abstract

Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, affects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which conflict is perpetuated in a cycle that is difficult to break.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: System Dynamics Review; 14(2-3):129-162 (Autumn/Fall 1998)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:09
Last Modified: 26 Feb 2016 12:35
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5357

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