Population momentum and the demand on land and water resources

Fischer G & Heilig GK (1998). Population momentum and the demand on land and water resources. In: Land Resources: On the Edge of the Malthusian Precipice? Eds. Greenland, D.J., Gregory, P.J. & Nye, P.H., Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI): The Royal Society. ISBN 0-85199-235-8

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Abstract

This article describes 10 major demographic trends in world population growth, the role of demographic momentum in projecting population, and what is known about future growth patterns. The analysis focused on estimating the extent to which availability of land resources in less developed countries will support population growth and on determining the potential to meet water and land needs. 1996 UN population estimates indicate that world population will increase 65% during 1995-2050, and over 80% in less developed countries. The largest increases are likely to occur in sub-Saharan Africa, especially middle Africa (240%), Eastern Africa (215%), Western Africa (205%), Western Asia (130%), and Southern Africa (125%). The largest absolute population size increase (1.15 billion) will occur in South-Central Asia. Most of the population growth will occur by 2030. Rain-fed cultivation of land resources in less developed regions could allow crop production of 2.5 billion hectares (ha), which is an increase of 1.6 billion ha since 1990. About 30% of the increases will be on marginal soils with severe soil and land limitations. About 47% of the 1.6 billion ha will be in Latin America, 45% in Africa, and 8% in Asia. An estimated 66% of potentially rain-fed cultivated land is currently covered by forests, wetlands, and mangroves, which range from 23% in Southern Africa to 89% in Southeastern Asia. If potential lands with forests and wetlands were preserved, the potential would be only 55 million ha. Countries with little time for developing land and water resources include Western Asia, South Central Asia, and Northern Africa.

Item Type: Book Section
Research Programs: Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LUC)
Bibliographic Reference: In: D.J. Greenland, P.J. Gregory, P.H. Nye (eds); Land Resources: On the Edge of the Malthusian Precipice?; The Royal Society, Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI), London, UK (March 1998)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:09
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2016 12:23
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5429

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