Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

Nakicenovic N, Victor N, & Morita T (1998). Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-99-004. Reprinted from Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4):95-131

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Official URL: 10.1023/A:1009699523349

Abstract

This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse-gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse-gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse-gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models, and systems engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about a factor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption vary by a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders of magnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forces. Subsequent papers give further analyses of the relationships among the main scenario driving forces and their other relevant characteristics.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint))
Research Programs: Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)
Bibliographic Reference: Reprinted from Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change; 3(2-4):95-131 [1998]
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:10
Last Modified: 19 Jul 2016 07:11
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5652

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