Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability

Ermolieva T, MacKellar FL, & Westlund A (1999). Robustness to Stochastic Shocks of Alternative Old-Age Pension Arrangements: Macroeconomic Stability. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-99-024

[img]
Preview
Text
IR-99-024.pdf

Download (359kB) | Preview

Abstract

The robustness analysis presented in this paper is a part of the work done to develop and verify the properties of a stochastic macroeconomic-demographic growth model focused on social security (MacKellar and Ermolieva 1999). The first set of experiments on robustness has been reported by Westlund et al. (1999).

Here we study the sensitivity of model solutions with respect to structural changes in exogenous variables and time varying structural interactions. The parameters varied are the productivity of capital and labor force participation rates. The sensitivity analysis focuses on three macroeconomic indices of the stability of the old-age support system: current balance and assets of the private, defined-contribution, fully-funded pension system and balance of the public, defined-benefit, Pay As You Go (PAYG) pension system. Robustness at the microeconomic level, construed as the stability of pensioners' and workers' after-tax income, is the subject of another paper in this series.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
Research Programs: Social Security Reform (SSR)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:11
Last Modified: 02 Nov 2016 12:15
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5915

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313