World population in 2050: Assessing the projections. Discussion

Lutz W (2001). World population in 2050: Assessing the projections. Discussion. In: Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change, Conference Series No.46.

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Abstract

I would like to follow up on the last sentence of the excellent presentation by Joel Cohen. It is indeed true that the lag between new methodological developments and their actual implementation by statistical agencies is regrettably long, but I think there is some hope that the speed of applying innovations has been accelerating over this century. This is the case in many other areas, and it would be surprising if it were not the case in the field of population forecasting. I would assess with a probability of well above 90 percent that by the end of this century, institutional procedures for projecting population will include probabilistic elements.

In the following, I would like to mention three additional aspects complementing the important remarks made by Cohen.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: In: J. Sneddon Little and R.K. Triest (eds); Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change, Conference Series No.46; Federal Reserve Bank of Boston pp.123-129 (2001)
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Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:13
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2016 16:42
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/6435

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