Assessing the Implications of Extreme Sea-level Rise - Part 1: Stakeholder Interaction Methodology in the ATLANTIS Project

Toth FL & Hizsnyik E (2004). Assessing the Implications of Extreme Sea-level Rise - Part 1: Stakeholder Interaction Methodology in the ATLANTIS Project. Background paper prepared for the ATLANTIS Project sponsored by the European Commission under EVK-CT-2002-000138 [2004]

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Abstract

A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on "Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst case climate change" studies one such case, the collapse of the West-Antarctic Ice-Sheet and a subsequent 5-6 meter sea-level rise. This requires a methodology to assess the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders.

This background paper provides information for the methodology development for the regional expert stakeholder interactions. A wide range of participatory integrated assessment methods has been reviewed and evaluated with respect to their potential use in the ATLANTIS participatory assessment process. This paper takes a selected set of participatory methods and outlines possible uses of them in the ATLANTIS stakeholder discourse process. The selection includes Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the ATLANTIS project are presented. They draw on design elements of the selected methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sealevel rise. The "Ticking clock" process emphasizes inertia, irreversibility, and long lead times in the management process. "Backcasting" helps chart the adaptation strategy by specifying the temporal sequence of measures moving backwards in time. The "Classic" design imitates the decision process through a series of steps of updated scenarios that incorporate implications of earlier decisions as well as new information. Finally, the "Over and over again" design focuses on the importance of the decisions made in the initial decades and involves several iterations over the same time period to allow participants benefit from the feedback received on earlier moves.

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LUC)
Bibliographic Reference: Background paper prepared for the ATLANTIS Project sponsored by the European Commission under EVK-CT-2002-000138 [2004]
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:16
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2016 12:27
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/7279

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