The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: Methane (CH4)

Höglund-Isaksson, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7514-3135 & Mechler, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2239-1578 (2005). The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: Methane (CH4). IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-05-054

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Abstract

Many of the traditional air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, offering a cost-effective potential for simultaneous improvements of traditional air pollution problems and climate change. A methodology has been developed to extend the RAINS integrated assessment model to explore synergies and trade-offs between the control of greenhouse gases and air pollution. With this extension, the GAINS (GHG-Air pollution INteraction and Synergies) model will allow the assessment of emission control costs for the six greenhouse gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O and the three F-gases) together with the emissions of air pollutants SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3 and PM. This report describes the first implementation (Version 1.0) of the model extension model to incorporate CH4 emissions.

GAINS Version 1.0 assesses the options for reducing N2O emissions from the various source categories. It quantifies for 43 countries/regions in Europe country-specific application potentials of the various options in the different sectors of the economy, and estimates the societal resource costs of these measures. Mitigation potentials are estimated in relation to an exogenous baseline projection that is considered to reflect current planning. The report identifies 28 control measures, ranging from animal feed changes over waste management options to various approaches for gas recovery and utilization. For each of these options, the report examines country-specific applicability and removal efficiency and determines the costs.

As a result, CH4 emissions in Europe are estimated for the year 1990 at 63,600 kt CH4. Assuming the penetration of emission controls as laid down in the current legislation, emissions would decline up to 2020 by 12,600 kt CH4 per year. Full application of the presently available emission control measures could achieve an additional decline in European CH4 emissions by 24,000 kt per year. Seventy percent of this potential could be attained at a cost of less than two billion Euro/year or Euro/ton CO2- equivalent, while the further 7,000 kt CH4/year would require costs of 12 billion Euro/year.

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