Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty

Patt A (2007). Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty. Global Environmental Change 17 (1): 37-46. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.10.002.

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Abstract

Assessment panels need to communicate scientific uncertainty, and often face choices about how to simplify or synthesize it. One important distinction is between uncertainty that has been modeled, and that which derives from disagreement among experts. From an economic decision-making perspective the two are in many ways logically equivalent, yet from psychological and social perspectives they are quite different. An experiment on the communication of climate change uncertainty suggests that the two framings of uncertainty differentially influence people's estimates of likelihood and their motivation to take responsive action. It is recommended that assessment panels pay close attention to the social features of uncertainty, such as conflict between experts.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change; Uncertainty; Assessment; Science communication
Research Programs: Risk and Vulnerability (RAV)
Bibliographic Reference: Global Environmental Change; 17(1):37-46 [2007]
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:39
Last Modified: 23 Feb 2016 12:04
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/8114

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