The Role of Age-Structured Data for Economic Growth Forecasts

Crespo Cuaresma J & Mishra T (2008). The Role of Age-Structured Data for Economic Growth Forecasts. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-08-003

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Abstract

This paper utilizes for the first time age-structured human capital data for economic growth forecasting. We concentrate on pooled cross-country data from 58 countries over six five-year periods between 1970 and 2000. We consider specifications chosen by model selection criteria, Bayesian model averaging methodologies based on in-sample and out-of-sample goodness of fit, and on adaptive regression by mixing. The results indicate that forecast averaging and exploiting the demographic dimension of education data improve economic growth forecasts significantly.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Postdoctoral Scholars (PDS)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:41
Last Modified: 27 Oct 2016 05:39
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/8776

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