Dimensions of global population projections: What do we know about future population trends and structures?

Lutz W & KC S (2010). Dimensions of global population projections: What do we know about future population trends and structures? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365 (1554): 2779-2791. DOI:10.1098/rstb.2010.0133.

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Abstract

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8 -10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the poulation and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: world population; population increase; population decline; dimensions of population projections; age structure; level of educational attainment
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences; 365(1554):2779-2791 (27 September 2010)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:43
Last Modified: 24 Feb 2016 16:36
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9208

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