Coping with Uncertainty: Robust Solutions

Marti K, Ermoliev Y, & Makowski M (2010). Coping with Uncertainty: Robust Solutions. Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. ISBN 978-3-642-03734-4 DOI:10.1007/978-3-642-03735-1.

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Abstract

Support for addressing the on-going global changes needs solutions for new scientific problems which in turn require new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of irreducible uncertainties, including extreme events of high multidimensional consequences, e.g., the climate change. The dilemma is concerned with enormous costs versus massive uncertainties of extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches rely on real obserations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments, and learning by doing may be expensive, dangerous, or impossible. In addition, the available historical observations are often contaminated by past actions, and policies. Thus, tools are presented for the explicit treatment of uncertainties using "synthetic" information composed of available "hard" data from historical observations, the results of possible experiments, and scientific facts, as well as "soft"data from experts' opinions, and scenarios.

Item Type: Book
Uncontrolled Keywords: Modelling uncertainty; Optimal decision under uncertainty; Optimal design; Robust optimal solution; Technical systems
Research Programs: Integrated Modeling Environment (IME)
Bibliographic Reference: Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany
Related URLs:
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:44
Last Modified: 10 Feb 2016 16:02
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9359

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