Emissions of Air Pollutants for the World Energy Outlook 2010 Energy Scenarios

Cofala J, Rafaj P, Schoepp W, Klimont Z, Borken-Kleefeld J, & Amann M (2010). Emissions of Air Pollutants for the World Energy Outlook 2010 Energy Scenarios. Final Report to Sponsor: International Energy Agency, Paris, France (September 2010)

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Abstract

This report examines global emissions of major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM2.5) resulting from energy scenarios developed for the World Energy Outlook 2010 (OECD/IEA, 2010). Estimates include emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation used in the IEA World Energy Model (WEM). Emissions have been estimated using the IIASA GAINS model.

The 2010 Outlook discusses three energy pathways for the next 30 years. The Current Policies Scenario reflects all policies currently enforced (as of mid-2010), but no new policies after the present. The 450 Scenario assumes - up to 2020 implementation of the Copenhagen Accord in its most ambitious form. It also assumes that all fossil fuel subsidies are phased out. After 2020 the 450 Scenario assumes that policies are implemented to achieve emissions cuts compatible with long-term temperature increases of no more than 2 degrees Celsius. The last scenario considered is the so-called New Policies Scenario, which simulates implementation of the less ambitious end of the Copenhagen Accord pledges, and planned fossil fuel subsidy removal. These pathways were implemented into the GAINS model. Next, emissions of air pollutants were calculated. Calculations take into account the current air pollution control legislation and policies in each country or region as adopted or in the pipeline by mid-2010. Presented in this report estimates do not include emissions from international shipping as well as cruising emissions from aviation. They also do not include emissions from biomass burning (deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires).

In 2005, world emissions of SO2 from sources covered in this report were about 96 million tons. OECD countries contributed 29 percent of this total. Implementation of pollution controls for the Current Policies Scenario causes an 11 percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 in 2020 compared with 2005. This is a combined result of more than halving of emissions from OECD countries, increase in China and India, and a decrease in Russia, South Africa, and Middle East. After 2020 emissions from the non-OECD countries start to rise, which causes an increase of world emissions by about five million tons until 2035. The corresponding world emissions of NOx are: 86 million tons in 2005 (of which 43 percent originated from the OECD countries), 11 percent decrease until 2020 and next increase until 2035 by about 15 million tons. Emissions of PM2.5 (38.2 million tons in 2005) are dominated by the sources from non-OECD countries 90 percent of total. In the period 2020 to 2035 the world emissions are by up to seven percent higher, which is again due to the increase of emissions from the non-OECD countries.

The 450 Scenario causes an important reduction in emissions of air pollutants. In 2035 the emissions of SO2 are one third lower than in the Current Policies case. Emissions of NOx decrease by 27 percent and those of PM2.5 by eight percent. However, the emissions of PM2.5 in the OECD countries increase by 19 percent, which is due to the growth in use of biomass as household fuel. Emissions for the New Policies scenario lie between those for the Current Policies and the 450 scenarios.

Costs of the air pollution controls were in 2005 about 157 billion Euros/annum. (All costs are calculated in 2005 using international prices of pollution control equipment and four percent real interest rate.) Until 2035 these costs increase in the Current Policies Scenario by a factor of three, which is due to higher activity levels and increasing stringency of controls. In 2035, 64 percent of the total control costs are the expenditures on reducing emissions from road transport. The 450 Scenario brings 23 percent cost savings in 2035 compared with the Current Policies case.

The Study also estimated health impacts of air pollution in Europe, China and India in terms of life years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5. PM concentrations as in 2005 cause a loss of about 1.9 billion life-years. (The estimates do not include exposure to indoor air pollution.) This estimate is dominated by impacts in China and India. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator in 2035 by about 70 percent to 3.2 billion. Decrease of PM concentrations as in the 450 Scenario in 2035 saves more than seven hundred million life-years.

Lower impact indicators and lower air pollution control costs in the scenarios with more active climate policies, and in particular in the 450 Scenario, clearly demonstrate important co-benefits of climate measures for air pollution.

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Atmospheric Pollution (APD)
Bibliographic Reference: Final Report to Sponsor: International Energy Agency, Paris, France (September 2010)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:44
Last Modified: 10 Feb 2016 16:15
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9381

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